Hard times might get still harder

If the increasingly dour-looking president of the United States has anything to cheer about this hot July weekend, it is the grand distraction that is the spectacle of the debt-ceiling debate. Without that messy sideshow, the American public would be focusing on what is really defining the current state of national malaise -- the fact that the US economy seems to have flat-lined early this spring, with no bounce in sight.

The sobering numbers, released at the height of debt-ceiling delirium on Friday morning, tell the story. Growth, as measured by GDP, ground to a halt in the first three months of 2011, and rose just 1.3 percent in the three months ending in June -- an estimate most economists now expect to be revised progressively lower. One key reason: US shoppers dropped spending plans this spring, with outlays for big-ticket items actually declining by 4.4 percent.

Four years since the economic crisis first reared its frightening head, with the failure of two Bear Stearns hedge funds in late July 2007, the nation's output is clocking in at just $13.27 trillion -- below where it was when the house of cards first began to tumble.Now, after $4.7 trillion dollars in federal spending and $1.8 trillion in money-printing from the Federal Reserve, we're in worse shape than we were before the bubble burst. And the economy is staring at the prospect of a fresh recession.

Obama Recession 2.0 figures to look something like this: Layoffs will hit the two big sectors of the economy that were spared the worst during the last recession -- government and Wall Street, where pink slips are already starting to come by the thousands. The fat cats President Obama likes to dress down won't be dressing up or going out as much, hitting high-end retailers and manufacturers that have weathered the storm better than others. This will add to the jobless rate among service workers.

With Another recession, if it comes, will make the past few weeks look like child's play. terrykeenan@email.com