Joel Sherman's Hardball

Joel Sherman's Hardball

Mets getting trade calls on Murphy

December 05, 2011 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

The Tigers, Blue Jays and Padres have all inquired on Daniel Murphy. Detroit appears most intrigued, viewing Murphy as a third base replacement for Brandon Inge. The Mets like the Tigers available... Read on

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Marlins' $100M offer to Reyes too rich for Mets

December 04, 2011 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

DALLAS – The Jose Reyes era with the Mets is all but over.The Marlins climbed over $100 million in a six-year offer, a person familiar with the negotiations told The Post, and that essentially... Read on

DALLAS – The Jose Reyes era with the Mets is all but over.
	 
The Marlins climbed over $100 million in a six-year offer, a person familiar with the negotiations told The Post, and that essentially eliminated the Mets from contention. ESPN-Deportes reported that the Miami offer was for six years at $111 million.
	 
The Mets had been willing to go to five years in the $75
	 
million-to-$85 million range with a vesting sixth-year option that would have taken Reyes over $100 million. But they felt they were stretching at five years. They believe they know Reyes best and that he is just too much of a medical risk, especially with his history of leg injuries, to go to the sixth year.
	 
The entire Mets front office was squeamish about climbing from considering a four-year deal to being willing to go five, team sources told The Post. But they felt for their most popular player they needed to stretch. But they were steadfast against going any further. In the end, they look as if they will never even make an official offer to retain Reyes.
	 
The Marlins are out to make a significant splash heading into their new stadium. They already have reached a three-year, $27 million contract agreement with closer Heath Bell. But Reyes was always the major player they wanted in this free-agent market. And now they appear to be closing in on the shortstop.
	 
It is possible that a team such as Milwaukee or perhaps Detroit could still make a late move to try to land Reyes – or maybe Reyes has some late change of heart to stay in New York. But, at this point, it would feel like an upset if Reyes was doing anything but playing for Miami next year.
	 
The Marlins’ intention has been to steal the most dynamic player away from a division rival and then move Hanley Ramirez to third base to accommodate Reyes. To do that, the Marlins moved aggressively as the Winter Meetings opened. They had made a six-year offer in the $80 million range a few weeks ago.
	 
By raising it so significantly now, they are showing how badly they want the switch-hitter and how much they were to make bold moves as a way to entice fans to their new park.
	 
The suspicion all along was that the Mets would not have the financial tolerance and/or wherewithal to retain Reyes. But as reality becomes starker they will likely have to deal with yet another wave of fan fury toward the franchise, in general, and ownership, in specific. The most faithful will simply believe that the Mets ownership was always comfortable making it look like they wanted to keep Reyes, without actually keeping him.
	 
It is difficult to know if the Mets would have done what was necessary to keep Reyes if their ownership was not in financial peril. Without Reyes, the Mets now could more easily move toward the $90 million-$100 million payroll they want to reach this offseason – which would be a cut of between $40 million and $50 million from last year.
	 
But it also is clear that the Mets were worried about Reyes’ long-term health and if he is really a good investment into the distant future especially considering that the team does not expect to be strong contenders until 2014 at the earliest. That would mean Reyes would be putting more wear and tear on his fragile legs the next two years while the Sandy Alderson administration was trying to build up the team.
	 
The Mets have noted that in a salary-drive season that Reyes still ended up on the DL twice due to hamstring injuries and essentially stopped trying to steal bases down the stretch. That made them fret even more that he would miss significant time during the duration of a long-term deal.
	 
Still, if Reyes is gone, the Mets are losing one of the best players in their history; certainly their best shortstop and most dynamic player. His departure signals in even a stronger way that the Mets are heading toward a total rebuild and payroll slashing. Young Ruben Tejada will be asked to play shortstop and Angel Pagan will likely be asked to lead off.
	 
It is a combination that will only make Mets’ fans long for Reyes – and agonize further if indeed this Miami deal gets done and the Mets have to deal with the Reyes-fueled Marlins 18 times next year.
	 
joel.sherman@nypost.com

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Mets talked Pelfrey-Street trade with Rockies

November 17, 2011 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

MILWAUKEE -- The Mets and Rockies had brief conversations about a trade that could have involved Mike Pelfrey and Huston Street, but the Mets are not overly enamored with the Colorado closer.
	 
The trade would have been difficult because Street and new Mets bench coach Bob Geren dislike each other from their days with the A’s.
	 
In May, Street told the San Francisco Chronicle that Geren was “my least favorite person I have ever encountered in sports.”
	 
The Mets are looking for a closer at the GM Meetings with Bobby Parnell struggling in the role after they dealt Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers at the All-Star break.
	 
Mets GM Sandy Alderson metwith the agents for Frank Francisco and Matt Capps on Wednesday.
	 
"I think we are casting a wide net," Alderson said. "But that doesn’t mean there are 50 candidates."
	 
Street had 29 saves in 33 opportunities with the Rockies last year with a 3.86 ERA. The 28-year-old is scheduled to make $7.5 million next season with a player option for 2013, which could be bought out for $500,000.

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FOLLOW: Sherman live from the GM Meetings

November 15, 2011 , ι NYPOST.COM

Post baseball columnist Joel Sherman will keep you updated with all the happenings from the GM Meetings in Milwaukee.... Read on

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MLB's new labor deal to eliminate free-agent compensation

November 15, 2011 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

MILWAUKEE -- The nightmare scenario for the Mets was not Jose Reyes leaving. It was Jose Reyes leaving and getting nothing in return.When the Mets decided against trading Reyes during the season,... Read on

MILWAUKEE -- The nightmare scenario for the Mets was not Jose Reyes leaving. It was Jose Reyes leaving and getting nothing in return.
	 
When the Mets decided against trading Reyes during the season, they believed their fallback position if the shortstop left via free agency would be to receive draft-pick compensation. But draft-pick compensation is almost certain to be eliminated as part of a new labor agreement, which could be completed as early as this week and certainly no later than the end of the month.
	 
However, Mets GM Sandy Alderson told The Post that the team made its decision with Reyes based on assurances from the Commissioners Office that compensation for free agents such as Reyes would remain the same this offseason regardless of what happened with a new labor agreement. An official from the Commissioners Office confirmed that is accurate.
	 
There is a strong possibility that Type-B compensation will be eliminated this offseason, according to two executives briefed on negotiations.
	 
Under the current system, teams have until next Wednesday to offer arbitration to their Type-A free agents. If offered, the player then has until Dec. 7 to reject or accept. If accepted the player cannot leave and either works out a new contract or goes to arbitration with the team. If rejected, the player remains free to sign elsewhere, but his old team gets draft compensation: At least a sandwich pick between the first and second round plus the first-round pick of the signing team if that club finished with one of the 15 best records the previous season and a second-round pick if the team finishes with a worse record than that.
	 
So if, for example, Reyes signs with Miami, the Mets would get just a pick between the first and second round because the Marlins tied for the 22nd-worst record in the majors in 2011 plus Miami’s second-round pick. But if Reyes were to, say, sign the AL Central champ Tigers, the Mets would get that sandwich pick, plus Detroit’s first-round position.
	 
Foxsports.com reported the Marlins offered Reyes a six-year, $90 million contract. That will probably not be enough to get it done, since Reyes is looking for no less than a $100 million deal. Nevertheless it shows the seriousness with which Miami is pursuing Reyes. However, the Marlins also are after other Type-A free agents and if they were to sign a higher-ranked Type-A such as Ryan Madson then the Mets would have the compensation pick fall to a sandwich between the first and second round plus a third-round pick.
	 
This system generally has not chilled the market of elite free agents as we saw again with Philadelphia’s willingness to sign Jonathan Papelbon and surrender its first-round pick to Boston. But, for example, set-up men such as Octavio Dotel and Takashi Saito also fall under the Type-A umbrella this offseason. And teams are generally against signing supplementary players and losing a draft pick, which kills the market value of such players.
	 
A Mets official, for example, told The Post the club had contacted about 10 relievers and told the representatives for those who are Type-A that they were only interested if their old team did not offer arbitration because “there is no way we are losing a draft pick.” Besides Dotel and Saito, the Mets have interest in Matt Capps, who falls into the Type-A designation.
	 
Two officials briefed on the talks said there might be some tinkering done to help create a market for players at the bottom of the Type-A designation such as, say, Dotel. What could be done, for example, is that the signing team does not lose a draft pick, but the club that loses the player is awarded at least a sandwich pick.
	 
However, both officials said they expect compensation for Type-B free agents will be eliminated this offseason. That compensation has been a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds, but no lost pick for the signing team. Players who fall into the Type-B category this offseason include Aramis Ramirez, Jason Kubel and Frank Francisco, another reliever for whom the Mets have interest.
	 
The Elias Sports Bureau ranks players as Type-A or Type-B or no classification based on statistics accumulated over the two previous seasons.

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3UP: The CC Sabathia edition

October 19, 2011 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

1. In yesterday’s Post, I wrote this column about how negotiations between CC Sabathia and the Yankees may take shape. I may be in the minority, but I think they will be difficult and I think there... Read on

1. In yesterday’s Post, I wrote this
	 columnabout how negotiations between CC Sabathia and the Yankees may take shape. I may be in the minority, but I think they will be difficult and I think there is a very good chance Sabathia will leave. And the reason is Derek Jeter.
	 
No, Jeter is not actually part of these negotiations. But think about how the Yankees handled talks with a legend last year. They were concerned about his long-term future. The Jeter camp thought because he was Derek Jeter with all that he meant to the franchise, the Yankees would just capitulate and give him a deal in the range of five years at $125 million.
	 
The Yankees not only never considered it: They went public with their views, namely with Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman putting voice to their concerns about Jeter’s worth. And this was Derek Jeter. Face of the franchise. Beloved by the fans. Historic Yankee who has played nowhere else. It was a little bit like taking on Santa Claus at Christmas time.
	 
Sabathia loves being a Yankee and the Yankees adore having Sabathia on their team and in their clubhouse. But he is no Jeter. He has played two other places. He has put down stakes in New Jersey, but not roots. Meanwhile, the Yankees are as concerned about his long-term future as they were with Jeter due to Sabathia’s workload and, especially because of his expanding girth.
	 
Remember what happened with Jeter: The Yankees made an offer and essentially told Jeter – remember, Derek Jeter – if you don’t like it and think you can get more, go shop it. Jeter was never going to shop it. First, it was highly unlikely another team was going to give a shortstop heading into his upper-30s and coming off by far his worst season a three-year contract at good money. Second, the image that allows Jeter to be one of the top athletes when it comes to corporate/commercial ties is one built around loyalty and association with the biggest of all sports franchises. To chase comparative nickels, Jeter was not going to threaten that image. He had a one-team negotiation and eventually signed the Yankees deal.
	 
Sabathia’s investment in the Yankees is not in the same universe. Yes, he has gotten some commercials, probably because of his Yankees association. But if the Yankees push Sabathia, I fully expect him to push back and go into the marketplace. Brian Peters is the agent who works for CC Sabathia, but he is part of a group led by Greg Genske and Genske’s reputation was summed up this way by a non-Yankees executive: “He is a hard negotiator who is going for the bucks.”
	 
So if the Yankees wonder if any teams would be willing to exceed the four years at $92 million left currently on Sabathia’s deal, I suspect Peters/Genske will advise their client that they can find more. Then it will be up to Sabathia to decide if he really wants to spend perhaps the rest of his career in, say, Washington or Toronto. The one team that would probably be a no-brainer for him is back in his home state, the Angels. And, remember, the Angels were just about to bid six years at about $125 million last time when the Yankees went to seven years at $161 million to seal the deal – but the deal did have this opt-out clause after three seasons. Which is where we are now.
	 
If pushed will the Yankees budge higher? Well, I think they are hesitant to tie themselves up to much longer contracts, notably because they are seeing what it does to even their roster and financial flexibility moving forward if Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira both continue to fade. Also, the lack of a true ace in this current World Series could be a motivator to the Yankees that they can find other ways to meet their mandate to win a championship.
	 
2. So where is the common ground for Sabathia and the Yankees? I think there are two scenarios with which the Yankees would be amenable and that might be enough to outbid others and/or convince Sabathia to stay where he is most comfortable:
	 
1) Cliff Lee turned down bigger total packages – including one offered by the Yankees – to sign where he wanted last year, a five-year, $120 million payday with the Phillies, which at $24 million made Lee the highest-paid pitcher ever by average per season on a multi-year contract. So the Yankees can reason that if Sabathia truly wants to stay in New York, then the Lee deal can serve as a model.
	 
They can offer, say, five years at $125 million. That would be $25 million per year, a new pitching record on a multi-year contract. That would mean Sabathia would simultaneously hold the record for both most given a pitcher overall ($161 million) and per season. In addition, Lee’s contract has a sixth option year at $27.5 million that if triggered would make the overall deal worth six years at $135 million. The option triggers if he does not have either a disabling left elbow or shoulder injury to end the 2015 season (the final guaranteed year on the contract) and he pitches either 200 innings in 2015 or 400 between 2014-15.
	 
The Yankees can make Sabathia’s triggers for fewer innings, say 175 in the final year of the contract and 350 over the final two seasons. And they can also sweeten the option somewhat, to say $28.1 million. The Yankees brought back Roger Clemens in 2007 during the year and paid him pro-rated amount based on a contract for $28,000,022. So if the Yankees pay Sabathia $28.1 million, he would be the single-season pitching champion, also, if the option triggered.
	 
2) Keep the four-year at $92 million framework and then make as many as three or four option years for, say, $27 million each that Sabathia adds with each healthy season over the next four. So, for example, if Sabathia throws 200 innings in 2012, an option for 2016 at $27 million kicks in. The same if he pitches 200 innings in 2013, etc, through the 2015 season. Thus, if all four options were to trigger, Sabathia’s new contract would be worth $200 million over eight years. But the Yankees would probably be happy to pay it because it gives them some protection that Sabathia remains a 200-inning force.
	 
3. I wrote this
	 World Series Confidentialin today’s Post about how Albert Pujols has similarities to Jeter and A-Rod that makes him such a tough sign for the Cardinals.
	 
But near the bottom I also wrote about why I think the talk of the Rangers being major bidders for Sabathia is overblown. The key element is that the executive who spurred the Ranger pursuit last year of Lee, Chuck Greenberg, is gone. He was ousted, in part, because the rest of the organization was concerned about the fervor – both emotional and financial – with which he pursued Lee. He kept wanting to meet with Lee. And he kept upping the bids beyond where the organization had established a breaking point.
	 
The two executives who were probably most concerned about what it would mean to the structure of the team moving forward were team president Nolan Ryan and GM Jon Daniels. They are the men more empowered than ever to run Texas’ baseball operations.
	 
And remember there was a tie to Lee; he had helped pitch the Rangers to their first-ever World Series appearance last year. Sabathia has no such ties.
	 
Will Texas be interested if Sabathia does get out on the market? Yes. But I suspect the Angels, Nationals, Blue Jays and, perhaps, Tigers would be way more aggressive in their bidding.

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3UP: Bullpens, CC and C.J.

October 17, 2011 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

1. In today’s Post, I wrote this column about if there is anything relevant for the Yankees and Mets based on the way the relief-centric postseason has gone.Clearly managers can be much more... Read on

1. In today’s Post, I wrote this
	 columnabout if there is anything relevant for the Yankees and Mets based on the way the relief-centric postseason has gone.
	 
Clearly managers can be much more aggressive and liberal with their bullpen use at this time of year. The games mean so much that you have to attack them early in reaction to a starter who does not have it. Cardinals manager, Tony La Russa, has done that brilliantly, especially in the NLCS. Also, there are more frequent off-days in the postseason than the regular season. So you can be aggressive with large swaths of your pen knowing that a pitstop for everyone is coming quick.
	 
Still, I am wondering what this might look like over the course of a full season. I am not talking about being this aggressive. We are not suggesting pulling a starter at the first sign of trouble in April. Or not letting a starter who is pitching well continue through seven, eight, nine innings. But what if you really did have six or seven relievers you trusted in the way that Texas manager Ron Washington and La Russa currently have. Then say you were willing to apply some rules like Joe Girardi does with the Yankees in which you do not use any reliever more than two days in a row. You would probably have to have at least two relievers with options so you can rotate through some arms in a particular time of need. When I asked Brewers GM Doug Melvin about this he was highly skeptical, but suggested that you might even be able to go to a four-man rotation if you are going to ask less of your starters since this would give you yet another reliever.
	 
In the past you couldn’t do this because relievers were the most volatile stocks in the game and it was hard to find guys who were good year after year to pitch as closers, much less in multiple set-up roles. But as the offense has dimmed in recent years, it seems one of the many reasons is because there is a better consistency in pens and also generally better arms. To the second issue first, Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long mentioned to me several times this year how good the arms were that the Yankees were seeing regularly in the middle innings. It messed a bit with the Yankees philosophy of work the starter hard to get to a weaker middle reliever. Long talked about a ton of arms throwing in the mid-90s now throughout bullpens with a strong secondary pitch that a lineup has to adjust to on one look. The underbelly did not feel as mushy.
	 
There were 40 relievers who posted a 3.50 ERA or lower in at least 40 innings and 40 games in both 2010 and 2011. It doesn’t sound significant, but there were only 23 in 2008-09, 21 in 2006-07 and 23 in 2004-05. Maybe it is a blip. But I think we are trending toward seeing more consistency in pens. Less offense translates to shorter innings, less stress and, thus, more of a possibility of a reliever being able to endure from year to year.
	 
And with high-end starters costing as much as they do, I wonder if there is value in not overpaying for an ace and, instead, focusing on filling your rotation with steady, sturdy quality – think five Ervin Santana types as long as you are able to protect it with a nice deep pen, which would be more cost effective.
	 
Bobby Valentine, one of my go-to people for off-beat ideas, doesn’t think it would work because of – among other things – human nature. That if you begin to cut starters’ workload regularly before they qualify for a win, you are going to mentally lose the pitcher and soon whole swaths of your clubhouse.
	 
Still, this postseason has made me wonder if there is another way to build a pitching staff beyond the traditional model we expect to succeed such as say, the Giants had last year in winning the World Series.
	 
2. In my
	 columnin Sunday’s paper I wrote about how the Yankees’ current plan is not to be too aggressive in the marketplace this year, especially if they are able to retain CC Sabathia.
	 
No matter how badly the offense performed in the postseason, Yankees officials view this area as a strength and not in need of any major restructuring. Jesus Montero is going to likely pick up a lot of the at-bats left vacant when the Yankees do not retain Jorge Posada. The Yankees would like to retain Andruw Jones for the righty-hitting outfield bat/fourth outfielder role. Whether they keep Jones or not, they intend to try to make Eduardo Nunez even more versatile, which means to have him add outfield duties more regularly.
	 
The Yankees’ emphasis will be on pitching. Their main bullpen desire will be to find a lefty to team with Boone Logan.
	 
As for the rotation, the Yankees’ obvious desire is to retain Sabathia. There is a general perception that the Yanks will do this because they need Sabathia and because Sabathia likes being here. But I do not think it is nearly that definitive. Even the more aggressive elements of the Yankees hierarchy are chilled by the ramifications of extending Alex Rodriguez when he opted out. The six years at $143 million left on Rodriguez’s contract chills even the deep-pocket Yankees now. I think it is going to be hard to get this group to budge much past what the Phillies did for Cliff Lee (five years at $120 million).
	 
In other words, I do not expect the Yankees to behave as they did last time with Sabathia, which was there is no chance in the world anyone was outbidding them for the southpaw ace they so badly needed. A refresher: The Yankees charged hard offering a deal in the six-year, $138 million range rather quickly; topping the previous high ever given a pitcher which was the $137.5 million over six years that the Mets bestowed Johan Santana. In an attempt to retain Sabathia, Milwaukee initially bid five years at $100 million. When the Brewers heard that the Angels were about to get into the bidding in the six-year, $125 million range, Milwaukee began to fashion an offer for about six years at $112 million hoping to show how the tax implications made the deal on par with that of the Angels. Remember, at that point the belief was that Sabathia didn’t want to play in New York, wanted to get back toward his West Coast roots, but loved his brief time in Milwaukee. So the Brewers thought they had a shot competing against the Angels if the Yankees really weren’t a factor. But, of course, the Yankees were factors. GM Brian Cashman flew to Sabathia’s Northern California home and upped the bid to the seven years at $161 million that was the finish line.
	 
And I expect Sabathia to be a hard-line bargainer again whether he likes it in New York or not – and the way I hear it is that he and his wife, Amber, really do like living in New Jersey/New York; but that the cold winters are not something that the whole family is crazy about. Also, in Greg Genske, Sabathia has an agent that one GM Sunday described to me as a coldly effective operator who he does not imagine giving discounts. I fully expect the Sabathia camp to make two points:
	 
1) When A-Rod opted out of his 10-year, $252 million deal, the Yankees went over that total with a 10-year, $275 million deal. They did this though A-Rod had turned 32 the previous July, had not delivered a championship to New York and was viewed at that time as a divisive force in the clubhouse. So why shouldn’t the Yankees give Sabathia more than the seven years at $161 million considering that he only turned 31 in July, has delivered a championship and is viewed as a uniting force in the clubhouse.
	 
2) The Yankees offered Cliff Lee seven years at $146 million last year after he had turned 32 and done nothing yet for the Yankees. Sabathia again is 31 and has done plenty for the Yankees, and why should he accept an offer that is one penny less than seven years at $146 million?
	 
Now the key elements here are going to be whether Sabathia is dictating the negotiation and truly will emphasize staying and/or is there anyone in the marketplace who really is willing to go above where the Yankees are willing to go even conservatively? Let’s say just for this exercise the Yankees are willing to go five years at $125 million for Sabathia (which I think they would do). That would top Lee and make Sabathia the highest-paid pitcher ever on an annual basis ($25 million a year) on a multi-year contract after the Yankees already made him the highest-paid pitcher ever on a total package ($161 million). Is that enough to keep Sabathia in New York no matter what the bids are elsewhere? And is someone elsewhere ready to offer Sabathia more than that, especially following a season in which his weight ballooned and a postseason in which two teams reached the World Series without needing anything close to an ace?
	 
Last week I wrote this
	 columnon the teams I imagine getting involved for Sabathia.
	 
3. Also as part of the column on the Yankees’ likelihood to search internally for answers, I reported that there seems to be no strong affinity within the Yankee organization for C.J. Wilson, who is perceived as the best free-agent starter available; unless you favor Yu Darvish. And the Yankees actually do favor Darvish.
	 
I suspect the Yankees will put in a bid when, as suspected, Darvish is posted sometime this winter. But I also suspect that the bid will be somewhat conservative because of, among other things, how bad the results were after the Yankees won the post for Kei Igawa. Also, there is an expectation within the industry that Texas and Toronto are going to be particularly aggressive on Darvish; perhaps the Nationals, too.
	 
As for Wilson, I have been surprised how many executives from multiple teams have shown a lack of fervor for him, including the Yankees. I thought based on his past two seasons as a starter (31-15, 3.14 ERA), the fact he is lefty would really make him a super hot commodity. And maybe it will be that way when the market does open, since in supply and demand, the supply of good starting pitching is very low in free agency and just about everyone needs it.
	 
But I have yet to find a baseball executive or scout who views Wilson as an ace and very few who even think he is a No. 2. Heck, one member of the Yankees decision-making apparatus told me he thinks Wilson is a No. 4 on a championship-caliber team, which just blew me away. There seems to be a fear that Wilson does not command the strike zone. Also, I thought the fact that he did so much relieving early in his career that the perception would be that his arm is relatively fresh. However, there was a consensus that it is pretty stressing to come in as a high-leverage reliever a few times a week.
	 
In addition, I do not fancy myself in any way an expert on pitching mechanics, so this is coming from three different baseball men who told me that Wilson has a bit of the Inverted W in his delivery; not as dramatic as those of, say, Stephen Strasburg or the young Mark Prior, but that it is there to some degree. It led one NL talent evaluator to say this to me: “Is he a good bet to start without breaking down over the next five years and 1,000 innings? Well, no one really is. But I would say his chances are slimmer than others.”

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3UP: Beltran, Swisher and Posada

October 11, 2011 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

1. In Sunday’s Post I wrote this column about how I would attack the offseason if I were running the Yankees. The item that drew the most attention in my email box was my suggestion that the Yankees... Read on

1. In Sunday’s Post I wrote this
	 columnabout how I would attack the offseason if I were running the Yankees. The item that drew the most attention in my email box was my suggestion that the Yankees seriously consider Carlos Beltran in free agency.
	 
Now a quick aside here that I know will mean almost nothing. But in the past I have simply ignored the lunatic fringe element that sends nasty emails or tweets on my account. But I will try this here this one time: Has our culture really been this degraded, this talk radio-ified that you can send a note to someone you don’t know and curse at them or worse? I recognize the anonymity and the spontaneity of these forums lead to bravery and impulse. But, in this case for example, I was recommending the Yankees consider a free agent for their team, not the pillaging of Ohio. I appreciate the passion of the responses, but wonder – in many cases – about the perspective to be this overheated and foul.
	 
Anyway back to my day job: I recognize the downside with Beltran. I don’t think any other columnist in the City has written more often over the past few years about the ticking bomb that is the Yankees age, especially when combined with their long-term contracts. In fact, you should see the kind emails I get when, for example, I suggest that Derek Jeter might be slipping in his play. But I digress.
	 
I think Beltran is a worry. He has had major knee injuries the past few years. It is definitely possible that his healthy/superb 2011 was reflective of a player having a big season in his free-agent walk year. And there has always been lingering concerns about just how much Beltran really even loves playing.
	 
So if the Yankees turned away from him, I would understand. But I happen to think that Beltran is a tremendous hitter and that the .910 OPS he produced this year playing home games for the Mets and Giants in two big parks and with two offenses not blessed with a lot of length for protection is noteworthy. With the Yankees, he would be playing in a more favorable home stadium and be amid a lineup that would protect him in a better fashion.
	 
Look, the easy thing would be just to pick up Nick Swisher’s $10.25 million option, play him in right field and have Jesus Montero join the lineup full time as a catcher/DH. Swisher is a bit of an iron man, having played at least 150 straight games for six straight years. Only Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera have also done that, and they are all first basemen.
	 
But this is my worry with Swisher: When he presses, as he does in the postseason, you do not get a very good player. And if the Yankees pick up his option, Swisher is definitely in his walk year next season. Before last season, he left his long-time, low-key agent Joe Bick for the brash Dan Lozano, a move that indicated he was emphasizing going for a huge return in his next contract; in some quarters there was belief that he wanted to shoot for what Jayson Werth received (seven years, $126 million) from Washington. I wonder if Swisher presses a whole season going after the gold?
	 
Also, Swisher’s .169 career postseason batting average in 124 at-bats is hard to ignore, particularly when mixed in with his woeful performance with runners in scoring position in the playoffs. That Swisher has four postseason homers, but only six RBIs, says a lot about his production. Beltran has hit .366 in the postseason with a 1.302 OPS and 11 homers in 82 at-bats.
	 
The Yankees baseball operations department would stress that getting to the playoffs is the key element and that it is a crapshoot from there; and Swisher has definitely helped the Yankees make the playoffs the past three years. But upper Yankees management keeps putting out statements before and after the season that only a championship matters, so can the Yankees really just ignore that they have a player who freezes in big spots and there is a player on the market who excels in them. Heck, Beltran was great down the stretch this year, trying to single-handedly get the offensively inept Giants into the postseason.
	 
2. Here is a question: Can the Yankees have Beltran and Swisher? Forget about the finances for a moment. Simply, could manager Joe Girardi find the at-bats for everyone?
	 
It would be difficult. But remember that the Yankees want to turn their DH slot into more of a group effort. Even without Beltran, the Yankees probably envision a 2012 campaign in which Montero DHs about 80 games and catches 80 games, as an apprentice season to see if he can do that because Russell Martin can be a free agent after next season.
	 
In the other 80 or so games, the DH slot would be divvied up by mostly the Yankees’ older players, such as Alex Rodriguez.
	 
Beltran has said he does not want to DH. But could the Yankees sell him on 50-60 games at DH in 2012 and 80-90 as a corner outfielder? That still leaves 100 DH games to divvy up elsewhere. Then could Girardi divvy up the corner outfield play among Beltran, Swisher and Brett Gardner? It would be difficult. Especially since the Yankees envision Eduardo Nunez’s role expanding next year because they want him to play some more corner outfield to increase his workload beyond being a back-up infielder.
	 
But as I pointed out in the column, I thought one of the subtle problems for the Yankee offense in 2011 was that their switch-hitters faltered in various ways. Jorge Posada lost his ability to hit from the right side. And Swisher and Mark Teixeira became greater liabilities from the left side. Beltran was the only switch-hitter in the majors (minimum 100 plate appearances) to produce a .900 OPS from both sides of the plate.
	 
I imagine a Yankees lineup something like this: Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Beltran, Robinson Cano, A-Rod, Teixeira, Swisher, Martin/Montero, Gardner.
	 
Can the Yankees afford it? Well, of course they can afford anything, but Hal Steinbrenner has tried to keep the season-opening payroll in the $200 million range.
	 
I speculated that Beltran would receive something in the neighborhood of three years at $42 million; though I am sure his agent, Scott Boras, will shoot higher. But remember that after the 2004 season when Beltran was last a free agent, he was willing to give the Yankees a discount to about six years at $96 million rather than sign the seven-year, $119 million deal with the Mets. Would he be willing to do something less to come this time; maybe something more in the two-year $24 million range? I don’t know. I do believe that Beltran cares about winning a lot more than his public perception. And I also think folks are going to be surprised at his Hall-of-Fame credentials when he is done playing; and it is always easier to launch a Cooperstown bid from The Bronx than just about any place else.
	 
More likely the Yankees would have to make a Swisher or Beltran decision. I believe they should seriously consider the Beltran possibilities. However, I think they would pick Swisher as less expensive and also a player that many Yankees decision makers happen to like; and then earmark their big money for finding more pitching.
	 
3. As for the player who was the Yankees’ primary DH this year, I wrote this
	 columnin Monday’s Post about Jorge Posada
	 
Think about how blessed the Yankees were to have a class of players – Jeter, Posada, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera – essentially come out of their system at one time. Blessed because we are talking about two Hall-of-Fame locks (Jeter and Rivera) and two borderline cases (Pettitte and Posada). But also blessed because those players really have defined themselves by winning. Sure they want to perform well and play. But if you are around players who only care about their stats it really sticks out. That quartet cares passionately about the final score of the game and the final outcome of a season the most. They have loved being Yankees.
	 
Now Pettitte ultimately left to go home to Houston for three years. Can Posada leave?
	 
Maybe. He is 40 now and the sport has really turned against aging players. He does not really play a position any more. He really can’t hit lefty pitching any more (.092). And he hit just .169 on the road this year with three homers in 160 at-bats.
	 
The market is going to be flooded with DH types and more teams may be like the Yankees and not want to rotate the job as a way to keep the bats of older players in the lineup. I suspect Posada could not get more than $2 million for next season and might get offers of a lot less; perhaps even just minor-league deals. As badly as he wants to continue playing and as strongly as he feels he can continue playing, will Posada want to uproot and mess with his Yankees legacy to go elsewhere? And that is something a new employer will have to consider, as well: Will they be getting a broken-hearted player who doesn’t really want to be there? After the Yankees said thanks but no thanks to another switch-hitting star of the dynasty, Bernie Williams, he had low-pay opportunities with the Brewers and, perhaps, the Mets, but decided not to play elsewhere.
	 
If Posada plays next year I see him in one of two roles: I could see a club such as Tampa taking a shot at him to be a lefty DH and play some first base and maybe even catch a bit. The Rays emphasize versatility. And, also, Posada at least has some comfort with the city because that is where the Yankees train. Or I can see him taking on the kind of role that Jason Giambi has in recent years with the Rockies: A lefty bat off the bench mainly who mixes in some first base, but also a clubhouse elder who can bring winning wisdom to a younger team.
	 
It is an interesting decision that Posada faces.

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3UP: CC, Swisher and Teixeira

October 04, 2011 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

1. In today’s Post I wrote this column about what a bad spot CC Sabathia put the Yankees in. He didn’t take the loss. But even to Sabathia that was semantics. He called the 5-4 Detroit victory “my... Read on

1. In today’s Post I wrote this
	 columnabout what a bad spot CC Sabathia put the Yankees in. He didn’t take the loss. But even to Sabathia that was semantics. He called the 5-4 Detroit victory “my fault.”
	 
And there are many reasons for that, but the main two were that 1) His job was to match ace work with Justin Verlander and he didn’t and 2) His failures mean that the Yankees are sending out A.J. Burnett to try and save their season.
	 
Now in reality, I suspect, Joe Girardi is going to have the quickest hook he has ever displayed tonight. He is not going to allow Burnett to put the Yankees too far behind. The key to this game is that the Yankees do not have an offensive hangover from dealing with Max Scherzer and Verlander. Because the offense should be able to do some damage against Rick Porcello.
	 
Consider that among pitchers permitted to start 30 games this year, Burnett had the third worst ERA at 5.07, but Porcello was eighth at 4.75. The worst in this category was Detroit’s long man, Brad Penny, at 5.30. So the Yanks want to be able to get Porcello out and Penny in and try to turn this into an offensive frenzy. In that way, Phil Hughes could be key tonight because he could be in the game early as the Yanks’ long man. Is he capable of, say, giving the Yanks two or three quality innings?
	 
As for Sabathia, yes, Gerry Davis had a very tight strike zone to the outside corner against righties. But when I asked scouts behind the plate for their assessment, they said it was tight both ways (I know some of the on-line pitch trackers suggest Verlander got more leniency. But it was clear that whatever the strike zone, Verlander could pitch in with dynamic stuff, especially once his curveball locked in around the third inning to serve as a counterpoint to a fastball he ticked into triple digits.
	 
Sabathia never really found a pitch that consistently worked for him. They key for success with Sabathia is being precise with his fastball, which sets up the rest of his repertoire. But since his outing on July 26 against the Mariners – when he came back from two rain delays to keep pitching – Sabathia’s fastball has lacked the precision and hard finish in the zone that has made him such an elite starter. Is that about his heavy workload? His heavy body? Just the reality of pitching? Look at how young David Price has struggled with his great stuff late in this season.
	 
Whatever it is, the Yanks are going to face a tough decision about Sabathia moving forward. He can opt out of his contract after this season. And the expectation has always been that he will because he could get more than the four years at $92 million left on his deal. And I anticipate that the Yanks – even with Sabathia’s iffy final two months – will spice up the contract. Mainly because what is their alternative? It is not like the Yanks to accentuate, say, 2015, over 2012. In other words, yeah, they are worried about Sabathia down the line, but they need in ace in 2012 and he is the surest thing because he has proven he can pitch here and he likes it here and seemingly prefers to stay.
	 
Nevertheless, I do suspect the Yanks – if they keep the lefty – are going to talk to Sabathia about trying to get his weight under control. Sabathia trimmed down somewhat coming into this season, but it is clear he has put all that weight back on, and possibly more. He is a big man. No one is expecting him to become a super model. But if the Yanks spend the money, they are going to ask that Sabathia try to protect the long-term investment by not putting such strain on his body by carrying such heft.
	 
2. I also wrote this
	 columnabout the continuing, historic postseason meltdowns of Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira.
	 
So much attention is focused on Alex Rodriguez, but Swisher and Teixeira are hurting the Yanks just as much – and perhaps more. At this moment, this is the worst five batting averages in Yankee postseason history (minimum 50 plate appearances): 1. Whitey Ford (.082). 2. Swisher (.152). 3. Teixeira (.161). 4. Joe Collins (.163). 5. Aaron Boone (.170).
	 
Ford kind of had an excuse for poor batting, since he was in the business of winning World Series games from the mound in a pre-DH world. Swisher and Teixeira have no excuses. One of the Yankee strengths should be having switch-hitters in the five-six holes to force tough moves for the opposing manager. But that is not happening. Strangely, the non-switch-hitter switch hitter in the No. 7 slot, Jorge Posada, is having the consistently best at-bats of any Yankee right now. I don’t think it could convince Yankee management to bring him back for another year. But it might be a call to another team that even at age 40, Posada can still hit from the left side and just may be able to hit even good fastballs until he is 60.
	 
As for Swisher and Teixeira, their clutch failure also has been devastating to the Yanks. Swisher, in his whole postseason career, is hitless in 28 at-bats with runners in scoring position, the last 23 of those having come with the Yankees. It is the worst result in that situation in history. Only Dan Wilson (0-for-21) and Pat Sheridan (0-for-20) had even reached the 20s in their careers without getting a hit with runners in scoring position.
	 
The feeling within the Yankees was that Swisher was getting too amped up for the playoffs and needs to calm down. And Yankee personnel insist that they have seen a more even-keeled Swisher this postseason. He did have a big home run off Jose Valverde in the ninth inning of Game 2 to incite what became a futile rally for the Yankees. But, in general, Swisher is still not doing much in the postseason.
	 
And Teixeira is doing less. He came up with runners on three times in Game 3 and struck out, flied out and popped out. He is now hitless in his last 13 postseason at-bats with men on base. That long swing and pull thought process allows him to accumulate production stats during the course of a 162-game season, but his batting average has plummeted then and he seems to be particularly feeble at this time of year when the pitching improves and the scouting reports become more detailed on how to attack hitters’ holes.
	 
Nevertheless, when I askedBrian Cashman this morning if the failure in the postseason by Swisher and Teixeira makes him feel that the team needs to make changes in the future in those areas, the Yankees GM familiarly said that the big picture shows “they are really good players.”
	 
Cashman added: “I can’t refute the statistics, they are there. We are not here without them. I believe they are big contributors.”
	 
Is there hope for a turnaround? Well, Brett Gardner went into last night tied with the sixth-worst batting average in Yankees’ post-season history. And he delivered the Yanks’ biggest hit a two-run double off Justin Verlander in the seventh inning. It was his first extra-base hit in 49 postseason at-bats. He now has two huge hits in this series; the other a two-run single off Doug Fister in Game 1.
	 
3. The seventh-inning homer that Delmon Young hit off of Rafael Soriano reminded me of the homer that Sandy Alomar Jr. hit off of Mariano Rivera in Game 4 of the 1997 Division Series: It was a good pitch away from a righty hitter who nevertheless went with the pitch and lined a homer to right on both occasions.
	 
Alomar’s homer was a solo shot that tied the score in the eighth inning before the Indians won in extra innings and ultimately won that series in five games. Young’s homer put the Tigers ahead to stay in Game 3.

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Cashman believes Yankees 'will win the next two games'

October 04, 2011 , ι By JOEL SHERMAN

DETROIT – Brian Cashman insisted it was “not a guarantee,” yet the Yankees general manager repeated several times this morning that “I expect to win the next two games” and advance to the ALCS.
	 
The Yankees face elimination Tuesday night with Detroit leading this best-of-five Division Series two-games-to-one. But, of all things, the loss that put the Yankees on the brink actually has Cashman encouraged about the abilities and mental makeup of his squad.
	 
“(Justin) Verlander had Nolan Ryan stuff and we figured out a way to score four runs and be in that game,” Cashman told The Post by phone. “This team is tough. Verlander was amazing last night and what we did against him was amazing, too. I know we lost, but I think we have a mentally tough team. I know it is not a good spot to be down two-to-one, but this team is tougher than people think. I believe in our guys. It is not a good spot, but I believe we will win the next two games.”
	 
Verlander, after the first inning of Game 3, locked in with all four of his pitches, particularly bedeviling the Yankees with a fastball in the 96-101 mph range and with a curveball that was buckling knees one hitter after another. Yet Brett Gardner’s two-run double in the seventh tied the score before Rafael Soriano served up a game-deciding homer to Delmon Young in the bottom of the inning in what became a 5-4 Detroit triumph.
	 
“It was spectacular what we did against Verlander,” Cashman said. “It is an indicator that we are not going away. That we are going to be tough to put down – and I don’t expect us to be put down.”
	 
However, to survive, the Yankees have to first win in Detroit on Tuesday night with A.J. Burnett simply to get back to The Bronx for a decisive game Thursday.
	 
“It’s A.J. and everybody else,” Cashman said, speaking of the bullpen being on instant alert for Game 4. “If everything is working for him, (Burnett) will be tough on the Tigers. If not, I will expect Phil Hughes (to relieve) and be on. Or the next guy.”

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About the Author

JOEL SHERMAN Joel Sherman has been at the Post since 1989, serving as Yankees beat writer from 1989-95 and baseball columnist since 1996. His Hardball blog won a 2008 Best Sports Blog honor from the Associated Press Managing Editors Association. Joel’s books include "Birth of a Dynasty, Behind the Pinstripes with the 1996 Yankees." He served as a weekly baseball analyst on New York 1 from 2000-05, was a regular contributor on the MSG Network from 2000-08, and was part of the My 9 Yankees postgame show for the past two seasons. He graduated from NYU in 1985. Columnist Archives

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